"We're All Sitting on Kegs of Gunpowder": Obasanjo Warns on Growing Economic Hardship

Former President Sounds Alarm on Nigeria's Socioeconomic Crisis

In a characteristically frank intervention that has sent ripples across Nigeria's political landscape, former President Olusegun Obasanjo has issued a stark warning about the country's worsening economic situation, declaring that the prevailing hardship has placed the nation on "kegs of gunpowder" that could explode if not urgently addressed.

Speaking at a high-level economic forum in Abeokuta, Ogun State, the elder statesman did not mince words as he painted a sobering picture of Nigeria's current predicament, highlighting the interconnection between economic distress and potential social upheaval.

Obasanjo's Warning: Beyond Rhetoric

"What we are witnessing is not merely an economic downturn but a comprehensive national emergency," Chief Obasanjo stated, his voice carrying the weight of his extensive experience as a two-time head of state. "When I say we are sitting on kegs of gunpowder, I am not engaging in alarmist rhetoric. I am describing the reality on our streets, in our markets, and across our communities."

The former president's metaphor of "kegs of gunpowder" resonates particularly strongly in the Nigerian context, where historical experience has demonstrated how economic hardship can rapidly transform into social unrest with far-reaching consequences.

According to close associates who attended the forum, Obasanjo elaborated on the multidimensional nature of the current hardship, citing skyrocketing food prices, persistent fuel scarcity despite promises of domestic refining capacity, deteriorating infrastructure, and growing unemployment as factors contributing to a potentially volatile situation.

A Historical Perspective from Baba Iyabo

Drawing from his wealth of experience navigating Nigeria through previous economic challenges, particularly during his 1999-2007 presidency when he inherited a struggling economy with depleted foreign reserves, Obasanjo offered historical context to the current situation.

"We have weathered difficult economic storms before," he acknowledged, "but what makes the present circumstances particularly concerning is the convergence of multiple crises simultaneously, coupled with diminishing public trust in institutional responses."

The former president reportedly drew parallels between the current situation and previous periods of economic hardship in Nigeria's history, noting that the social contract between government and citizens becomes increasingly fragile when basic necessities become unaffordable for the average Nigerian.

Beyond Criticism: Obasanjo's Proposed Solutions

True to his reputation as a statesman who prefers constructive engagement over mere criticism, Chief Obasanjo did not limit his intervention to highlighting problems. Attendees report that he outlined a comprehensive set of immediate and medium-term measures that could help defuse the "gunpowder" situation.

These reportedly include:

1. An emergency national economic summit bringing together government, private sector, labour, and civil society stakeholders
2. Temporary suspension of certain economic policies pending comprehensive impact assessment and refinement
3. Targeted social investment programmes specifically designed to address acute hardship among the most vulnerable
4. Establishment of state-level economic stabilisation committees with substantial citizen participation
5. Transparent communication framework to rebuild public trust in economic policy direction

"The situation demands not just technical economic solutions but a restoration of public confidence through sincere leadership and demonstrable empathy," Obasanjo emphasized, according to multiple sources present at the forum.

Public Reaction: Resonance Across Political Divides

The former president's warning has garnered significant attention across Nigeria's political spectrum, with many noting that his intervention transcends partisan considerations given the universal experience of hardship among citizens.

Market women in Lagos expressed strong agreement with Obasanjo's assessment. "Baba is speaking the truth that many in authority are afraid to acknowledge," said Alhaja Sidikat Adeyemi, leader of a market women's association in Mushin. "When people cannot feed their families despite working from sunrise to sunset, the frustration builds to dangerous levels."

Similarly, commercial transport operators, who have been particularly affected by fuel supply challenges, voiced support for the former president's characterisation of the situation. "What Baba Obasanjo said about gunpowder is exactly right," remarked Abubakar Sadiq, chairman of a transport union in Kaduna. "We are managing our anger daily, but there is a limit to what people can endure."

Expert Analysis: Economics and Security Nexus

Economic and security experts who have analysed Obasanjo's statement note the historical accuracy of his implied connection between economic distress and security challenges.

"There is extensive empirical evidence supporting the linkage between acute economic hardship and social instability," explains Dr. Folasade Akinola, an economist at the University of Lagos. "When basic survival becomes increasingly difficult for large segments of the population, the social contract begins to fray, creating conditions where radical narratives find fertile ground."

Security analyst Colonel Mohammed Bello (Rtd) adds: "The 'kegs of gunpowder' metaphor is particularly apt because it captures both the potential for sudden eruption and the preventable nature of the crisis. Like gunpowder, socioeconomic discontent requires specific triggers to explode into unrest, but the window for preventive intervention narrows as hardship persists."

Government Response: Acknowledgment Without Commitment

Official reaction to Obasanjo's warning has been measured, with government spokespersons acknowledging the challenges while reiterating commitment to existing economic policies and programmes.

A senior administration official who requested anonymity noted that "while we respect the former president's perspective, the current administration inherited complex economic challenges that require time and patience to resolve. The reforms being implemented, though difficult in the short term, aim to create sustainable prosperity."

However, policy analysts have pointed out that such responses, focusing on long-term benefits without addressing immediate suffering, may actually reinforce Obasanjo's point about disconnection between governance approaches and citizens' lived realities.

The Way Forward: Heeding the Warning?

As debate continues about Obasanjo's intervention, the central question remains whether his warning will catalyse substantive policy recalibration or join previous such alerts in the archive of unheeded counsel.

Civil society leaders have called for the government to take the former president's warning seriously, regardless of political differences. "When someone with Chief Obasanjo's experience and national stature speaks in such terms, wisdom dictates attentive listening rather than defensive dismissal," notes Hajiya Amina Suleiman, a prominent civil rights advocate.

The coming weeks will reveal whether the "gunpowder" metaphor serves as a wake-up call leading to concrete action or becomes yet another vivid but ultimately unheeded warning in Nigeria's political discourse.

What remains clear is that Obasanjo, maintaining his tradition of outspokenness even in his advanced years, continues to position himself as a voice of uncomfortable truths in Nigeria's national conversation – particularly when those truths concern the welfare of ordinary citizens bearing the brunt of economic policies.

As the nation reflects on his warning, the lingering question is not whether the former president's assessment is accurate – many across political divides acknowledge it is – but whether there exists the political will to defuse the "kegs of gunpowder" before they explode.