How Oil Price Drama Always Hit Nigerian Pocket Pass Garri Money

Photo: The Times of India

Why Crude Oil Wahala Dey Always Affect Our Daily Bread

My people, make I tell you something wey you already know but maybe you never really connect the dots. Every time crude oil price jump for international market like say e wan reach moon, na we Nigerians dey feel am pass. Whether na pandemic, war, or any other global gobe, once oil price start to dance, our pocket go dance too - but not the kind of dance wey dey sweet us o!

Just recently, oil price don jump above $100 per barrel again because of military tension between US and Iran. For those of us wey dey think say this kind thing no concern us, abeg think again. This na the same pattern wey we don see before, and e go affect everything from the fuel for your car to the price of that bread you dey buy for morning.

The Pandemic Crash and Recovery Show

Remember 2020 when COVID-19 scatter everywhere? Oil price crash reach negative levels - yes, negative! People wey get oil no get where to keep am because nobody dey travel, factories don close, everywhere just standstill. You go think say this one go favor Nigeria abi? Wrong thinking!

Even though oil price crash, our naira still weak like person wey never chop for three days. Why? Because we depend too much on oil money to run this country. When oil price low, government no get money to do anything. Na why subsidy talk dey always cause problem - government dey struggle to pay for am when oil money no dey come in strong.

Then when the world start to open back and everybody wan travel again, oil price begin climb like person wey dey climb coconut tree. From around $20 per barrel, e climb reach $80, then $90. And as e dey climb, na so fuel price for our filling stations dey climb too.

Russia-Ukraine Gobe and Our Fuel Station Stories

2022 na another year wey oil price show us pepper. When Russia invade Ukraine, oil price jump like say rocket launch am. Russia na major oil producer, Ukraine too get some oil business, so when wahala start between them, supply chain scatter.

For Nigeria, this period na when fuel scarcity become our daily anthem. Filling stations dey close, long queues dey everywhere, black market sellers dey smile to bank. Price of PMS jump from around ₦165 per litre to above ₦200 in many places. Transport fare increase, cost of goods follow increase, and ordinary Nigerian dey suffer the heat.

The irony be say we get oil for ground, but we still dey import refined petroleum products. So when international oil price high, e affect the cost of importing refined products, and this cost na we go pay am through higher fuel prices.

The Current Iran-US Drama and Wetin E Mean for Us

Now wey oil price don jump above $100 again because of US military action against Iran, the question be: wetin this mean for average Nigerian? Based on history, here na wetin we fit expect:

• Fuel price go likely increase for filling stations
• Transport fare go follow increase as danfo and taxi drivers adjust their prices
• Food prices go rise because transportation cost don increase
• Inflation go climb higher as everything become expensive
• Naira fit depreciate further against dollar if government no handle am well

But e get small hope sha. If international oil price high and we fit manage our oil production well, government fit get more revenue. But the question na whether this extra money go reach ordinary citizens or e go still disappear inside one corner.

Why We Dey Always Vulnerable to These Oil Price Swings

The main problem be say our economy too dependent on oil money. We no diversify enough. When oil price high, everybody happy small, but when e crash, the whole country dey feel am. Other countries wey diversify their economy - like say dem get strong agriculture, manufacturing, tech sector - dem no dey feel oil price changes reach the way we dey feel am.

Another problem na our refining capacity. We get four refineries for Nigeria, but dem no dey work properly. So even though we produce crude oil, we still dey export am and import refined products. This arrangement dey expose us to international price changes more than necessary.

Wetin We Fit Do Moving Forward

For government side, the solution clear but e no easy to implement. We need to diversify the economy, fix our refineries, and reduce our dependence on oil revenue. For citizens, we fit start to dey think about alternative transportation methods, energy efficiency, and supporting local businesses wey no too depend on imported goods.

The truth be say as long as international oil market dey experience this kind volatility - whether na from war, pandemic, or any other global crisis - Nigeria go continue to feel the heat. But if we plan well and diversify our economy, we fit reduce how much these external shocks dey affect our daily life.

So next time you see news about oil price jumping for international market, just know say na time to prepare your pocket for the chain reaction wey go follow am. E be like domino effect - once oil price fall or rise significantly, everywhere go feel am for Nigeria.