Kogi 2032 Power Rotation: Fairness or Political Chess?

Photo: The Punch

The Big Announcement From Kogi

So here is the gist that has been making rounds in Kogi State political circles — key stakeholders have come out to endorse an eight-year rotational power arrangement for the state, but here is the kicker: they want it to start in 2032. Why 2032, you ask? Simple. That conveniently gives Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo enough room to serve his second term without any wahala. After that, then the rotation can begin. Interesting timing, abi?

Now, before we start clapping for this arrangement, let us sit down, drink our zobo, and really think about whether this kind of political agreement actually serves ordinary Kogi people or whether it is just another way for the big men to share power among themselves while the rest of us watch from the gallery.

What Is This Rotation Talk All About?

The idea behind rotational power is not new in Nigeria. We have seen it at the federal level with the informal North-South presidency arrangement. Several states have also tried their own versions. The logic sounds good on paper — rotate power between senatorial districts or ethnic groups so that everyone gets a chance to sit on the throne and nobody feels left out.

In Kogi's case, the state has three senatorial districts: Kogi Central, Kogi East, and Kogi West. These zones have different dominant ethnic groups — the Igala, the Ebira, and the Okun/Yoruba-speaking communities among others. Political tension between these groups is not new gist. So when stakeholders propose a rotation arrangement, they are essentially saying: "Let us share this thing like adults so there will be no fight."

Sounds reasonable, right? But e get as e be.

The Ododo Factor — Convenient Timing or Calculated Move?

Here is where your Naija instinct should kick in. These same stakeholders who are preaching fairness and rotation are simultaneously backing Governor Ododo for a second term. Now Ododo is from Kogi West. If the rotation starts in 2032 — after he completes a possible second term in 2031 — that means Kogi West would have held the governorship for a long stretch before the rotation kicks in.

E no add up, my people.

If the goal is truly fairness, why not start the rotation conversation now? Why not anchor it to existing zoning agreements rather than backdating the arrangement to start after one man has completed his maximum tenure? Critics will tell you — and they are not wrong — that this is classic Nigerian political maneuvering. You package incumbency protection inside the wrapping paper of equity and justice, and you sell it to the masses as progress.

This is the kind of thing that would make Fela Kuti write another album if he were still alive.

Does Rotational Power Actually Work in Nigeria?

Let us be honest with ourselves. The evidence from Nigeria is mixed, at best. Look at the federal level — we have an informal rotation arrangement, yet ordinary Nigerians from the North or South are not feeling any different in their pockets. Power has rotated, but electricity has not. Governance has shifted between zones, but poverty has also been spreading comfortably across all six geopolitical zones without discrimination.

At the state level, some rotation arrangements have helped reduce ethnic tension and gave minority groups a sense of inclusion. That is a real benefit and we should not dismiss it. But in many other cases, rotation simply meant that a different set of elites from a different zone came to chop the national cake while the masses from that zone watched and cheered from the roadside.

The fundamental question is this: what good is power rotation if the people who rotate into power still do not fix roads, still do not pay salaries on time, and still treat the state treasury like their father's inheritance?

What Kogi People Should Be Asking

If you are a Kogi indigene reading this, here are the real questions you should be putting to these stakeholders:

• Will this rotation arrangement be legally binding — backed by law or party constitution — or is it just a gentleman's agreement that will be forgotten the moment someone smells power?
• What happens if the party in power decides to ignore the arrangement in 2032? Who enforces it? The same politicians who designed it?
• Is there a clear zoning formula that all three senatorial districts have agreed to, or is this still vague talk that will cause confusion later?
• What accountability benchmarks are being attached to Ododo's second term that stakeholders are endorsing? Or una just dey support without conditions?

The Broader Nigerian Lesson

Nigeria has a long history of political arrangements that sound progressive but end up serving the powerful. We have seen power rotation agreements torn apart in Oyo, debated endlessly in Anambra, and manipulated in Edo. The pattern is almost always the same — elites agree to share power among themselves, ordinary people get excited thinking their turn has come, and then somehow the same set of connected families keep producing governors, senators, and local government chairmen.

Real fairness is not just about which zone a governor comes from. It is about whether that governor is building schools in the rural areas of Kogi East, whether the Ebira communities in Kogi Central are getting their fair share of infrastructure, and whether the Okun people of Kogi West feel represented in appointments and development projects regardless of who is in Government House.

The Verdict

Look, the idea of rotational power in Kogi is not inherently bad. If done correctly and transparently, it can genuinely promote inclusion and reduce ethnic tension. But the way this current arrangement has been packaged — endorsing Ododo's second term first, then talking about rotation starting in 2032 — smells more like political choreography than genuine commitment to fairness.

Kogi stakeholders need to do better. If you truly believe in rotation and equity, write it down, sign it, and make it enforceable. Do not just use it as a press release strategy to make incumbency look like altruism.

For now, the jury is still out on whether this is a genuine step toward fairness or just another episode of Nigerian political chess where the pawns — ordinary Kogi citizens — remain exactly where they started.

We dey watch.