Kano Political Chess: How APC Plans to Checkmate Kwankwaso

Photo: The Punch

My people, if politics na chess game, then Kano State don turn the ultimate chessboard where every move matter pass life and death. The recent political calculations wey dey happen for the ancient city get everybody talking, as the All Progressives Congress (APC) dey strategically position to weaken one of the most formidable opposition figures in northern Nigeria.

The gist be say APC don set their eyes on former Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, and this move fit change the entire political equation for the North. You see, when big political players dey move like this, e no be just about one state – na the entire Nigerian political landscape dey at stake.

The Master Strategist vs The Political Engineer

Make we talk am as e be. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) presidential candidate for 2023, na political heavyweight wey nobody fit take lightly. The man get massive following for Kano and beyond, with him signature red cap movement (Kwankwasiyya) wey dey command serious loyalty among the masses.

But politics na game of numbers and alliances, and APC don realize say if they wan neutralize Kwankwaso influence for Kano, they need someone wey get similar political weight – enter Ibrahim Shekarau.

Shekarau, wey serve as Kano governor from 2003 to 2011, na experienced politician wey sabi the terrain well well. The man don move between different parties before – from ANPP to APC to PDP and back to APC. Some people dey call am 'political tourist', but make we no forget say this same flexibility na wetin make politicians survive for our political system.

Why This Move Make Sense for APC

For those of una wey dey wonder why APC dey pursue Shekarau so tey, make I break am down for you. First, the man get serious grassroots connection for Kano, especially among the educated elite and moderate Islamic groups. This na different demographic from Kwankwaso core supporters.

Second, Shekarau name still dey ring bell for northern politics. During him time as governor, he implement several education reforms wey people still dey appreciate till today. That legacy still get value for political market.

Third, and this one na the koko – if Shekarau join APC fully, e fit help them split the opposition votes for Kano. You know say divided opposition na gift to any ruling party.

The Kwankwasiyya Challenge

But make we no think say this political chess game go be easy for APC. Kwankwaso political structure (Kwankwasiyya) no be ordinary organization. The movement get deep roots for Kano and other northern states, with loyal followers wey ready to vote based on Kwankwaso endorsement alone.

The red cap movement don survive different political transitions, and many young people for the North see Kwankwaso as alternative to the established political order. This kind of loyalty no easy to break, even if you bring ten Shekaraus.

Moreover, Kwankwaso recent performance for 2023 presidential election, where he secure significant votes for northern states, show say him influence still dey intact. The man finish fourth for the presidential race, but for states like Kano, him performance been impressive.

The Defection Drama

As APC dey court Shekarau, reports don dey come out say some key figures for Kwankwasiyya dey consider jumping ship. Politics na game of interests, and when people see say their current platform no dey give them wetin they want, dem fit change side.

But here na the thing – defections fit work both ways. While some people dey leave Kwankwasiyya, others fit join am, especially if they see say APC dey use divide and rule tactics. Nigerians sabi when politicians dey play games with their loyalty.

What This Mean for 2027

The real test of this political maneuvering go come for 2027 elections. If APC succeed in bringing Shekarau fully into their fold and use am effectively neutralize Kwankwaso influence, dem fit gain significant advantage for northern politics.

But if Kwankwaso maintain him base and even expand am, the opposition fit use Kano as launching pad for serious challenge against APC supremacy for the North. Remember say control of northern votes na key to winning presidential elections for Nigeria.

The Bigger Picture

This Kano political chess game na reflection of the larger struggle for political control for Nigeria. APC know say strong opposition for key northern states fit threaten their dominance, so dem dey do everything possible to weaken opposition strongholds.

For us citizens, we need dey watch this political calculations with sharp eyes. Make sure say as these politicians dey play their games, we no forget to hold dem accountable for development and good governance. Whether na APC, NNPP, or any other party, what matter pass na how dem fit improve our lives.

As this political drama continue unfold, one thing sure – Kano politics go remain hot topic for Nigerian political discussions. The ancient city wey don host many political battles throughout history, dey prepare for another round of political warfare wey fit determine the direction of northern Nigeria politics.

Make we dey watch as this chess game play out, because the outcome go tell us plenty things about the future of opposition politics for Nigeria.